OPS 910: Supply Chain Analytics - Discuss any apparent

Assessment 1 - Business report

Topic - Case Study Analysis

You are required to demonstrate the following knowledge and skills in this assessment

- Demonstrate the use of linear programming model to solve a real world supply chain problem;

- Demonstrate the use of computer software to get necessary output;

- Demonstrate the interpretation of computer output to answer different questions,

Demonstrate the use of managerial report effectively to convey your results to senior managers.

Assessemnt 1 - 3000 words

Assessment 2 - Business report

You are required to demonstrate the following knowledge and skills in this assessment

- Demonstrate the understanding of the role and application of regression models for business case in real world problem;

- Demonstrate the knowledge of how to develop a useful linear regression model from the historical dataset and identify parameter estimates;

- Demonstrate the ability to formulate significant conclusions from the developed regression model; and

Demonstrate the use of managerial report effectively to convey your results to senior managers.

Assessemnt 2 - 1500 words

WIENER FOOD COMPANY

THE PROBLEM DESCRIPTION

For many years, Wiener Food Company has operated a restaurant in a resort community near ski area of Simmering in Vienna. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when the ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area.

As the view surrounding mountains was breathtaking, a high priority was placed on having large windows and providing a spectacular view from anywhere inside the restaurant. Special attention was also given to the lighting, colors, and overall ambiance, resulting in a truly magnificent experience for all who came to enjoy gourmet dining. Since its opening, the restaurant has developed and maintained a reputation as one of the "must visit" places in that region of Vienna.

Due to personal preferences, the founders of the Wiener Food Company have decided to sell the restaurant and open a bed and breakfast near a company owned large winery and Heuriger (an Austrian tavern where wine from the latest harvest is served) in another part of Vienna. To make this happen, the founders would have to sell the restaurant for the right price. The price of the business would be based on the value of the property and equipment, as well as projections of future income. A forecast of sales for the next year is needed to help in the determination of the value of the restaurant. Monthly sales (in €1,000s) for each of the past 3 years are provided in Table below.

Month

Y1

Y2

Y3

Jan

219

222

225

Feb

210

212.5

219

Mar

207

211.5

217

Apr

159

165.5

169

May

153

159

165.5

Jun

120

122.5

127

Jul

120

127.5

132

Aug

108

111.5

115.5

Sep

99

105

112

Oct

112.5

116.5

121.5

Nov

135

139

144.5

Dec

157.5

161

167.5

Questions

1. Prepare a graph of the data. On this same graph, plot a 12-month moving average forecast. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.

2. Use regression to develop a trend line that could be used to forecast monthly sales for the next year. Is the slope of this line consistent with what you observed in question 1? If not, discuss a possible explanation.

3. Use the multiplicative decomposition model on these data. Use this model to forecast sales for each month of the next year. Discuss why the slope of the trend equation with this model is so different from that of the trend equation in question 2.

Prepare a managerial report and provide detailed discussion on the method adopted, justification, and the recommendations provided for each of the questions above.

Important Notes

1) You may make reasonable assumptions and informed judgements as needed, but make sure to state them clearly in your report. Do not use assumptions merely to by-pass the challenges faced.

2) Ensure you refer to the marking criteria before finalising the model/report.


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